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We buy TTWO and Kering Stocks

The Reaction Function and Trading Surprises

The reaction function:- Market Clues: The market constantly provides clues about its preferences and perceptions. These clues reveal what the market considers "new" or "old news."- Power of Reaction Functions: A reaction function is a powerful tool. It helps us understand how firms or traders respond to each other's actions. In the context of trading, it reveals what matters most to the market.- Market Priorities: When the market reacts differently to specific data points, it signals what it cares about. As traders, we should pay attention to these cues.- Time Matters: After an initial market reaction, it's wise to wait a few hours. This allows us to gauge whether the news is truly positive, negative, or neutral for a currency.Remember, the saying goes: "The first move is always wrong." So, patience and analysis are key!

Upside surprises:
When the market doesn't expect something, it reacts. This reasoning may seem basic, but it reveals a lot about how the market thinks. If the reaction to an upside surprise in the data is weak, it means that the information is not new to the market. For example, if inflation exceeds expectations, there may be little reaction because this was already anticipated by some recent survey data.
How can you use this in your trading? Market reaction tells us whether something is ‘new’ to investors. It reinforces the view that rates could rise, potentially supporting the currency in the weeks ahead.However, it is important to note that even if there is an upside surprise in the data, the currency may weaken. This can mean a number of things:
Data already incorporated: Sometimes the market has already taken certain information into account, and an upside surprise may not have a major impact. For example, if an economic recovery is already well established, a slight improvement in the data may not be considered ‘new’ and so may not move the market significantly.
In short, upside surprises can be opportunities for traders, but it is essential to take account of the overall context and the current state of the market. Bear in mind that reactions can vary depending on many factors, and it is always wise to look at the underlying data and keep abreast of economic developments.

Downside surprises:
Like upside surprises, downside surprises will weaken the currency if they support the market thesis at the time. For example, weakness in employment may reinforce the idea of rate cuts. Logically, this is correct.
It is always important to look at the underlying data to understand why the release is weaker than the consensus.
Observing the market's reaction to a downside surprise tells us how ‘bad’ it is perceived to be.
Remember not to think like a robot. In some cases, a downside surprise can actually strengthen the currency.1 - A downside surprise in the PMI should weaken the currency, but it may have underlying data that supports it in the short term. For example, a lower services index, but an underlying rising employment level (above 50), suggesting a potential recovery.
2 - Think about the amount of negativity already built into the currency price (weak price action for some time). In this case, slightly weaker than consensus releases may not move the market, as they are not considered ‘news’ given the already known economic weakness. Look at the example of Europe.
In short, understand how the market reacts to surprises and take account of the overall context to make informed trading decisions. 📉💡I hope this has helped you.

July 27 of 2024 Write By Yanis Chanelet Trader

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Mindset can achieve everything - Make by HEHDEUS

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The Altseason

Start
It's almost altcoin season, also known as "altseason" but what is it: Altseason is a period in the cryptocurrency market when altcoins clearly outperform Bitcoin in terms of performance. This translates into a decline in Bitcoin's dominance as in the chart below showing bitcoin dominance for now (BTC's share of total crypto market capitalisation). Currently, Bitcoin's dominance is at its highest level since the March 2021 crash, with only eight of the top 50 altcoins outperforming BTC in three months.
The term "altcoin" is short for "alternative coin" - as the name suggests, it is an alternative to Bitcoin. Here are some well-known examples of altcoins:
Ethereum (ETH): Known for introducing smart contracts and decentralised applications (DApps).
Litecoin (LTC): Initially conceived as "money" compared with "gold", which is Bitcoin.
Ripple (XRP): Aims to revolutionise the global money transfer industry.
Altcoins are often based on different functionalities from Bitcoin and can be very volatile.

Here are the phases of the altseason, with the first phase being the dominance of bitcoin, as can be seen on bitcoin today or on the chart below, with a clear loss of ethereum's share.
Halving + validation of bitcoin etfs have led to strong liquidity in bitcoin.

Phase 2, in which flows are redirected to ethereum, is not yet underway.
But our advice is that given that 192,000 traders have been liquidated in the last 24 hours on the cryptocurrency market, totalling $482 million, there are wallets that are bleeding, so it's the balances and you can't miss them. So reload!!!

From the projection on the graph below you can understand something very important. The financial markets are all about Psychology and Emotion. This projection shows that the Altseason should arrive around October 2024, straddling 2025, during the winter months, at least in Europe. These are the months when most people are at home. These months also coincide with the central banks cutting interest rates, which will send a lot more money into the crypto markets.

We hope this article has helped you understand the financial markets and crypto-currencies in general and as you know, we have a support group where we share our daily reports and analyses of the crypto and forex markets, as well as cocoa, orange juice and equities, not forgetting the PEKNA FUND by Evolve Invest Corp.
So don't miss this opportunity. This year there will be those who won't go on holiday to invest but who after the altseason will be able to go on holiday for life.
So think about it ;)

June 18 of 2024 Write By Yan Trader

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Report 09/05/24:

Click right to read the analysis →

Report 07/12/24:

Report of our position:

Report from 04/16/2024:⚡️Today we had a US announcement 🇺🇸 on retails sales referring to the revenues generated by retailers' sales of goods and services.In short, above-expectation retail sales in an inflationary environment can show that the economy is buoyant, but they can also underline inflationary pressures. This can influence investors' outlook on overall economic health and central bank monetary policy decisions.

Report continued:1. Stocks retreated on Monday as rising yields overshadowed strong results from Goldman Sachs, encouraging retail sales data and hopes that the Middle East conflict would not escalate further.2. The S&P 500 slipped 1.1% into negative territory after rising as much as 0.9% earlier in the session. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.7%, with Salesforce and other technology stocks particularly hard hit. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 232 points, or 0.6%, giving up a lead of over 1% seen at the session highs.3. Yields cooled the market rebound seen on Monday morning. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond passed the key 4.6% threshold in the session and reached its highest level since mid-November.4. Yields rose after data showed a 0.7% increase in retail sales in March, indicating that consumption remains strong despite inflationary pressures. This pace was higher than the 0.3% forecast by economists polled by Dow Jones.5. Concerns over Iran's launch of drones and missiles into Israel on Saturday evening also weighed on investor sentiment, marking the first direct attack on Israel from Iranian territory.6. Oil prices fell on Monday, giving up some of the gains they had made in the preceding weeks.7. Salesforce dragged the Dow lower, falling more than 6% on reports that the software company was in talks to acquire data management company Informatica.8. Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, gained around 2.5% after beating Wall Street expectations on both first-quarter revenues and earnings.9. Monday's action adds to the previous difficult week on Wall Street, as lingering inflation concerns and a poor start to the new corporate earnings season weighed on traders.10. Both the Dow and S&P 500 saw their worst weekly performances since last year.Today's trading was mainly fundamental, due to the geopolitical context.
Our position was driven by our fundamental analysis and just little technical way.By Trader Yan Chan

🇺🇸 FED & BITCOIN:Several factors contributed to the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates:- Inflation is well above the Fed's 2% target. Consumer prices have risen by over 8% in the past year, the highest inflation in 40 years. The Fed's mandate is to promote maximum employment and stable prices, so high inflation has put pressure on the Fed to act.- A tight labour market with low unemployment has fuelled wage growth and fears of an inflationary spiral. The Fed wants to cool the "hot" labour market to ease inflationary pressures.- The Fed kept interest rates extremely low for years to support the economy after the Great Recession. But with the strong economic recovery and rising inflation, the Fed decided to tighten monetary policy by raising interest rates.- The Fed wants to anticipate inflation and raise rates pre-emptively, before inflation becomes entrenched. Once inflation expectations rise, it becomes more difficult to bring inflation down. This is why the Fed is now taking an aggressive stance.- Global factors such as supply chain disruptions, rising commodity prices and the war in Ukraine have also contributed to rising inflation. The Fed's rate hikes are designed to counter some of these global pressures.Now let's move on to Bitcoin and its upcoming halving:
Here is a 15-line article on the halving of Bitcoin 2024 :The Bitcoin 2024 halving presents both opportunities and threats for investors.In term of pportunities:
Halving will reduce the supply of new Bitcoins, which could increase the price of Bitcoin and generate significant gains for existing holders.This could attract more institutional investors and companies looking to profit from the rising price.Publicity around halving could boost retail investor interest and adoption of bitcoin.In term of threats:
If the bitcoin price fails to rise significantly after halving, investors could be disappointed and sell their positions.Halving could trigger high short-term price volatility, which is a risk for investors.Regulators could step up their scrutiny of bitcoin after the halving because of its growing popularity.In summary, the 2024 halving could be a major catalyst for the bitcoin price, but it also carries significant risks related to volatility and the reaction of regulators. Investors should carefully evaluate these factors before making investment decisions.

19/05/23 Write By Trader Yan

🇺🇸 Correlations:Today we are going to talk about the interdependence of markets and the more than interesting correlations.
We'll start with some basics.
The Australian dollar rises when gold rises, but why?Because Australia along with Russia are gold exporting countries so we don't need to tell you about the supply and demand metric for you to understand that if the price of gold goes up these economies benefit. (GDP)The New Zealand dollar and milk, New Zealand supplies 27% of the world's milk and China supplies over 30%.All of this comes from a company called Fonterra, which is a big part of New Zealand's GDP.So when there's a high demand for milk and the price goes up, there's a positive impact on their economy, because the demand for the currency will also go up.Let's move on to the Canadian dollar and oil (tic = wti), I don't need to tell you that the two are correlated, because Canada is a big producer.We have the Swiss Franc and its correlation with gold. You will tell me that it is already correlated with the Australian dollar.Quite simply, because Switzerland is not only the world's safe haven, but it also has the 3 largest gold refineries in the world.As the picture below illustrates, this is one reason why gold and the CHF are correlated.

We also have Japan and copper inversely correlated because Japan imports a lot of copper.
We also have wheat and the euro when the price of wheat falls and the EUR/USD pair follows.When Europe has to buy gas or oil from the US, Europe has to sell euros to buy dollars to make the transaction, so in this case we sell the EUR/USD pair because there are less "euros" in the market and the dollar takes the upper hand and so the spread is reduced.
We have the Dow Jones which is an index showing the US economy. When this one explodes upwards, gold, which is a safe haven, falls.
(Chart below - gold in blue line)

Update on the US debt situation. On Tuesday and Wednesday Biden said that he will find a solution to this crisis and the charts exploded upwards. We are still on guard but Congress should vote something beneficial before a default.
That's it for me this week, see you next week.

11/05/23 Write By Trader Yan

🇺🇸 Interest Rates and Unemployment
This article aims to anticipate a downturn and inevitably the birth of opportunities while taking the metric of digital currencies aimed at tracking flows and beyond that pushing people to consume for a so-called recovery of the economy in a context of exponential speculative bubbles sprinkled with a decline in banking confidence.
We will purely take graphs that are understandable to many people.

We will purely take graphs that are understandable to many people.
In the graph above, we have compared the peaks in US interest rates with the peaks in the unemployment rate at its highest point. And what it shows is that after each interest rate increase there is a period where the two curves cross, from which the peak in the unemployment rate will emanate downstream.
In short, understand that the beginnings of high unemployment are preceded by a peak in interest rates.

Concerning the interest rates and the strong correlation USA EUROPE, we observe that in the USA thanks to the Dot Plot giving indications on the projection of interest rates in the future. Thanks to the table above, you can observe that in 2024 interest rates should fall according to the median line (5 small blue dots) and that only after 2025 we would find "normal" interest rates.

From the table above (cme fed watch tool) we can see that the next FOMC meeting on June 14, 2023 has a 70% probability of a rate hike as well as for July. August and September are expected to be the first downturns or stagnation. And remember that when interest rates go down, unemployment goes up, just as it does for Treasury bonds. If the face value of a treasury bill goes up, its yield goes down as soon.
So after some guesswork, I am counting on a peak in unemployment between September and November, knowing that the Christmas period is a drain on activity.
In short, the triptych that I wanted to show aims to link the various sources that I looked for and especially how to analyse them threefold.
On that note, have a nice day.

🇫🇷Taux d'intérêts et Chômage :
Cet article vise à anticiper une baisse de régime et forcément la naissance d'opportunités tout en prenant la métrique des monnaies digitales visant hélas à tracker les flux et au-delà de ça pousser les gens à consommer pour une dites relance de l'économie dans un contexte de bulles spéculatives exponentielle saupoudré d'un déclin dans la confiance bancaire.
Nous allons purement prendre des graphiques compréhensibles par bon nombre de personnes.

Sur le graphique ci-dessus, nous avons comparé les pics des taux d'intérêts aux US et les pics du taux de chômage à ses points les plus culminants. Et ce qu'il en ressort est qu'après chaque augmentation des taux d'intérêts arrive une période où les deux courbent se croisent dont émanera en aval le pic du taux de chômage.
En sommes, comprenez que les prémices d'un fort taux de chômage est précédé d'un pic de taux d'intérêts.

Concernant les taux d'intérêts et la forte corrélation USA EUROPE, nous observons qu'aux USA grâce au Dot Plot donnant des indications sur la projection des taux d'intérêts dans le futur. Grâce au tableau ci-dessus, vous pouvez observer qu'en 2024 les taux d'intérêts devraient baisser selon la ligne médiane (5 petits points bleus) et que seulement après 2025 l'on retrouverait des taux d'intérêts "normaux".

À partir du tableau ci-dessus (cme fed watch tool) nous pouvons observer que le prochain meeting de la FOMC (FED) le 14 juin 2023 à probabilité de hausse des taux pour 70% des interrogés ainsi que pour juillet. Août et Septembre devraient être les premières baisse ou stagnation. Et rappelez-vous que quand les taux d'intérêts baissent le chômage quant à lui monte tout comme pour les bonds du trésor. Si la valeur nominale d'un bon du trésor augmente, son rendement baisse aussi tôt.
Donc après supputation, je table sur un pic du chômage entre septembre et novembre sachant que la période de Noël est drainante d'activité.
En somme le triptyque que j'ai voulu montrer vise à faire la liaison entre les divers sources que j'ai cherché et surtout comment triple analyser.
Sur ce bonne journée.

05/05/23 Write By Trader Yan

🇺🇸 Overview:We start with Shell, which recorded rather impressive results when Pfizer post covid lost more than 1.11% on its share.
A record profit of $9.6bn when you consider that OPEC+ has been aiming to adjust the price since the beginning of April, but after a bullish gap and a correction of the latter is heading towards a barrel at $68. In pure technical analysis, we had a liquidity take at $63.64 creating a spike that will head towards a real oscillation above $75.
Let's get back to the context that allowed Shell to make these profits.
The first factor is purely supply and demand due to the energy crisis created by the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.
The second is internal and is a result of improved operational performance and a reduction in the cost of running its day-to-day business. It is also known that there are positions taken in the markets to cover the trade of the real economy. So much for our black gold without forgetting that the sanctions on Russian oil are not really working. Because we know that Saudi Arabia is buying up Russian oil and incorporating it into its stocks.The new wound is Pacwest Bancorp, a Los Angeles bank that has lost 80% of its value in three months and, as I write, is plunging another 50% after announcing last night that it was considering its rescue options. We are not done yet and on April 25th the CEO of Standard Chartered said it well knowing that yesterday Powell had to balance the VCL (value of commercial life)since we remember that rising interest rates lead to a decrease in the face value of treasury bonds. But on the other hand, if they don't go up, we have inflation going as crazy as the banking scandals... Was chosen to increase by 0.25 basis points, the highest interest rate since 2006 and the ECB followed today at 2:30 pm.US debt:
I'll give a brief rundown, the US debt pushed back every time a valid reason arises war, oil shock, energy crisis etc....
The latter amounted in 1946 to 275 billion dollars to arrive today on a total of 31 400 billion dollars...
But the latter becomes a political tool, because on June 1, if there is no vote, the USA will find itself in default of payment, which will lead to a total blackout of the lifestyle exporting country (no more payment of civil servants, military, government agents, pensioners as well as creditors on the markets, systemic risk).
But it is purely strategic, the Republicans want to push the Democrats to reduce public spending, especially on taxes, which would not help President Biden who wants to implement certain policies.That's it for this round-up of Thursday 04 May.🇫🇷Tour d'horizon:On commence avec Shell qui a enregistré des résultats plutôt impressionnant quand Pfizer post covid perd plus de 1.11% sur son action.
Un bénéfice record de 9.6 milliards de dollars quand on sait que l'OPEP + vise à ajuster le prix depuis début avril, mais qui après un gap haussier et une correction de ce dernier se dirige vers un baril à 68$. En pure analyse technique, on a eu une prise de liquidité à 63.64$ créant un spike qui va se diriger vers une vraie oscillation au-dessus des 75$.
Revenons-en au contexte ayant permis à Shell de réaliser ces bénéfices.
Le premier facteur est purement de l'ordre de l'offre et la demande dû à la crise énergétique crée par le conflit Russo-Ukrainien.
Le deuxième est interne et est propre amélioration des performances opérationnelles et une réduction des coûts de fonctionnement de ses activités quotidiennes. On sait aussi qu'il y a des positions prisent sur les marchés pour couvrir le commerce de l'économie réel. Voilà pour ce qui est de notre or noir sans oublier que les sanctions sur le pétrole russe ne fonctionnent pas vraiment. Car on sait que l'Arabie Saoudite rachète le pétrole Russe et l'incorpore dans ses stocks.La nouvelle blessure s'appelle Pacwest Bancorp, une banque de Los Angeles qui a perdu 80% de sa valeur en trois mois et qui, à l'heure où j'écris, plonge de 50% de plus après avoir annoncé cette nuit examiner ses options de sauvetage. On n'en a pas fini et le 25 avril dernier le PDG de Standard Chartered l'avait bien dit sachant qu'hier Powell à du faire la balance de la VVC (valeur de la vie commerciale) puisque l'on se rappelle que des taux d'intérêts en hausse conduisent à une baisse de la valeur nominale des bonds des trésors. Mais d'un autre côté, s'ils ne montent pas, on a une inflation devenant aussi folle que les scandales bancaires... A été choisi d'augmenter de 0.25 points de bases, taux d'intérêts le plus haut depuis 2006 et la BCE à suivi aujourd'hui à 14 h 30.La dette Américaine:
Je vais faire un bref topo, la dette des États-Unis repoussée à chaque fois qu'une raison valable se fait sentir guerre, choque pétroliers, crise énergétique etc...
Cette dernière s'élevée en 1946 à 275 milliards de dollars pour arriver à aujourd'hui sur un total de 31 400 milliards de dollars...
Mais cette dernière devient un outil politique, car le 1 juin s'il n'y a pas de vote, les USA se retrouveront en défaut de paiement, ce qui conduira à un black out total du Pays exportateur de lifestyle. (Plus de paiement de fonctionnaires, de militaires, agents gouvernementaux, retraités ainsi que les créanciers sur les marchés, risque systémique).
Mais c'est purement stratégique, les Républicains veulent pousser les Démocrates à réduire les dépenses publiques notamment sur les impôts ce qui n'arrangerait en rien le Président Biden qui veut mettre en place certaines politiques.Voilà pour ce tour d'horizon du Jeudi 04 Mai.

27/04/23 Write By Trader Yan

🇺🇸 Special issue "Anticipation":There are many ways to analyse and anticipate market fluctuations.
Geopolitics, monetary policy, global economics (interdependence and globalisation), macroeconomics, commodity correlations, indices (Dow J, S&P, VIX...), currency values and so on, but that is the puzzle.
It doesn't require that much skill but a good understanding of human psychology and a touch of rationality pushed by grey matter.
But there are also documents and curves that have documented previous crises and the right time to invest.
There are many examples of this, such as Mr Templeton or George Tritch, who had one of the same techniques.
But we will just focus on the yield curve.
This curve is very interesting and what we have seen is that every time the red curve went back to positive and touched those "normal" levels, the recession was coming. You can have fun doing the triptych between the trading view, the yield curve and George Tritch's paper.
I think you will understand.
That's it for me today.

🇫🇷 Numéro spécial "Anticipation":Il y a de maintes façons d'analyser et d'anticiper les fluctuations sur les marchés.
Le volet géopolitique, la politique monétaire, l'économie globale (interdépendance et mondialisation), la macroéconomie, les corrélations des commodités, les Indices (Dow J, S&P, VIX...), les valeurs des monnaies et j'en passe, mais voilà en somme le puzzle .
Cela ne demande pas tant que ça de compétences quant mais une bonne compréhension de la psychologie humaine et un soupçon de rationalité poussé par la matière grise.
Mais il existe aussi des documents et des courbes ayant documenté les précédentes crises ainsi que les moments opportuns pour investir.
M. Templeton ou encore George Tritch qui ont eu une des mêmes techniques.
Mais nous allons simplement nous concentrer sur le yield curve.
Cette courbe est très intéressante et ceux que l'on a observé, c'est qu'à chaque fois que la courbe rouge remontait en positif et retouchait ces niveaux "normaux" la récession pointait le bout de son nez. Vous pouvez vous amuser à faire le triptyque entre trading view, le yield curve et le document de George Tritch.
Je pense que vous comprendrez.
C'est tout pour moi aujourd'hui.

20/04/23 Write By Trader Yan

🇺🇸 Cheat Codes:Today we'll just talk about enrichment bias, this article will have a mindset dimension.
I always asked myself questions (A-HP). I stayed in my bubble and wanted to understand how everything was constructed.
Tokamak, nuclear fission, cigarettes, social bias, ketoacidosis, permafrost and so on.
But all in all, this curiosity helped me to understand something that later became of paramount importance in my life, even if it meant locking myself away in complete autarky.
Success, but what is it, because depending on the culture and the personality, it is not the same.
I have always wondered how to have it and acquire it.
Earning more money or being healthy, because money wouldn't help if you were sick. So I thought there is no formula for excellence and success, but each person's journey and success.
Of course, there are cheat codes that are not for the lazy.
The first is health, that hard and complicated grail, but still accessible via a routine requiring a lot of effort, but worth it (capitalism, although I am a player, is destructive to the weakest of minds)
The second, I would say, would be to do everything that people don't like to do (here see it as a question of supply and demand and above all as a springboard to your goal) great and long studies, although I am not a fervent defender of this and I rather push for self-made.
The third is not to follow the masses, this is not the market or the street. The tricks of the trade that attract the most credulous by the crowd effect. Social integration factors are often outdated and that is why you have to take a step back and evaluate your matrix.
The fourth would be for me to work smarter than to work longer, someone who makes decisions faster even if his qi is lower will succeed faster on the pecuniary sphere than the other person. It is all a question of the law of action. Be careful though, some situations require a synergy of the two.The fifth, I would say the investment in yourself, so that you are uninhibited by all these social constraints and codes. So that you develop either your self that moves in the street with ultimate confidence because of the achievement you have had and because of the knowledge downloaded in your brain in proportion to the attention, the time you have devoted to it.
The sixth one is to make your money work, it's one of the laws of the rich, those who take jets for 15 min commute ;). Money is wind and it is also a flow that must and can help you to develop, but like the great fortunes that make financial arrangements via foundations to make their money work on the financial markets. This entry is becoming more and more democratic. The wealth of the richest 1% has increased by 30% since the "pandemic", ask yourself why.
The seventh is meditation, which is incredibly powerful. Combined with your religious belief I can tell you that focusing on yourself for 10 minutes a day with headphones and hertz waves is a crazy time. Visualize yourself with your goal and the steps that will get you there.
Watch a video that you have created or that motivates you every morning (video link at the bottom of the page).
You will see that you will get there.
That's it for me, I wanted to write a triptych, but the first 20 minutes alpha from waking up inspired me.But let's not forget that success is unique to each of us and that it can come from health, a family, a house, travels or accomplishments...🇫🇷 Cheat Codes:Aujourd'hui on va simplement parler des biais d'enrichissement, cet article aura une dimension mindset.
Je me suis toujours posé des questions (A-HP). Je restais dans ma bulle et voulais comprendre comment tout était construit.
Tokamak, fission nucléaire, cigarettes, les biais sociaux, acidocétose, permafrost et j'en passe.
Mais en somme, cette curiosité m'a aidé à comprendre une chose qui plus tard est devenue dans ma vie d'une importance capitale, quitte à m'y enfermer en autarcie complète.
La Réussite, mais qu'elle est-elle, car suivant la culture et la personnalité, elle n'est pas la même.
Je me suis toujours posé des questions sur comment l'avoir et l'acquérir.
Gagner plus d'argent ou être en bonne santé, car l'argent n'y ferait rien si vous êtes malade. Je me suis donc dit qu'il n'y avait pas de formule pour exceller et réussir, mais que le parcours de chacun et la réussite de chacun.
Bien sûr, il existe des cheat codes n'étant eux pas pour les fainéants.
Le premier, est la santé, ce graal dur et compliqué, mais pourtant accessible via une routine demandant maints efforts, mais qui vaut la peine. (le capitalisme bien que j'en sois un joueur est destructeur pour les plus faibles d'esprit)
Le deuxième, je dirais que cela serait de faire tout ce que les gens n'aiment pas faire (ici voyez-y une question d'offre et de demande et surtout un tremplin vers votre objectif ) grandes et longues études bien que je n'en sois par le fervent défenseur et que je pousse plutôt au self made.
Le troisième est de ne pas suivre la masse, on n'est pas au marché où dans la rue. Les tours de passe-passe qui par l'effet de foule attire les plus crédules. Les facteurs d'intégrations sociales sont souvent désuet de sens et c'est pourquoi il faut prendre de la hauteur en évaluant votre matrice.
Le quatrième serait pour moi de ne travailler que plus intelligemment que de travailler longtemps, quelqu'un qui prend des décisions plus vite même si sono qi est amoindri réussira plus vite sur la sphère pécuniaire que l'autre personne. Tout n'est qu'une question de loi de l'action. Attention quand même, certaines situations demandent à faire une synergie des deux.
Le cinquième, je dirais l'investissement sur soi, de façon à être désinhibé de toutes ces contraintes et codes sociaux. De façon à ce que vous développiez soit votre vous qui se déplace dans la rue en confiance ultime de part l'accomplissement que vous avez eu et grâce aux connaissances téléchargées dans votre cerveau proportionnellement à l'attention, au temps que vous y avez consacré.
Le sixième faire travailler votre argent, c'est une des lois des riches, ceux qui prennent des jets pour 15 min de trajet ;). L'argent, c'est du vent et c'est aussi un flux qui doit et peut vous aider à vous développer, mais comme les grandes fortunes qui font des montages financiers via des fondations pour faire travailler leurs argents sur les marchés financiers. Cette entrée se démocratise de plus en plus. La fortune des 1% les plus riches a pris + de 30% depuis la "pandémie" demandez-vous pourquoi.
Le septième c'est la méditation, cette dernière est d'une puissance inouïe. Combiné avec votre croyance religieuse je peux vous dire que le fait de se concentrer sur soi 10 minutes par jour avec un casque et des ondes hertz est un moment fou. Visualisez-vous avec votre objectif et les étapes qui vous y conduiront.
Regardez une vidéo que vous avez créée ou qui vous motive chaque matin. (lien vidéo en bas de page)
Vous verrez que vous y arriverez.
C'est tout pour moi, je voulais écrire un triptyque, mais les 20 premières minutes alpha du réveil m'ont inspiré.Mais n’oublions quand même pas que la réussite est bien propre à chacun et qu’elle peut tenir à la santé, à une famille, une maison, des voyages ou des accomplissements…

12/04/23 Write By Trader Yan

🇺🇸 The Retirement:
Today we are going to talk about debt in France. This latter, although present in many countries and for some held only by its inhabitants, is not obsolete in France although having a very close link with the reform of pensions thought more than 7 years ago in the political wings.
But why a reform now?You will understand, there is first of all the money supply, that is to say the money in circulation which every actor needs and which companies use to develop, but this supply is classified in 3 boxes.
The first is called M1 and is made up of coins, notes and deposits.
The second, called M2, is deposits with a term of less than or equal to 2 years as well as passbooks and other deposits with a notice period of less than or equal to 3 months.
And finally, there is M3 which are repos, money market fund shares (held by French people in the form of bonds) and debt securities with a term of less than or equal to 2 years.
We also know that since the war, the French have been saving more, especially on derisory passbook accounts, when we know what we can earn by investing intelligently.
Now I'll give you one more piece of information. The state's debt is held in the form of bonds issued by the state. To put it simply, it's like buying a company share, but in this case you become a shareholder of the "state". But the problem is that this debt in France has only increased in recent years. So we need to attract new "shareholders".
Bonds have a value, they are nothing but invested cash (nominal value). Remember, Silicon Valley Bank, which was growing, bought too many of these without doing any risk capital calculation, and ended up with a lower value (face value) of these bonds due to the rise in interest rates in the USA. But some of these clients needed cash, which the SVB could not provide.
Today, the largest holders of French debt are BlackRock, Vanguard, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.But why pension reform?Now you know that BlackRock is a "shareholder of France", not to mention the main French banks and insurance companies, is also a fund manager and impacts the political landscape whether we like it or not. And as each time between two actors, there is a balance of power via counterparts, BR was able to negotiate its own. They told themselves that if the French were afraid for their savings and pensions, they would want to invest in pension funds. And yes, BR manages over 28 billion in assets in France and over 10,000 billion worldwide (according to the latest figures).
Why do you ask? Quite simply for capitalisation purposes, i.e. to entrust private financial companies (such as BlackRock) with the management of part of the retirement insurance. BlackRock would propose a quasi-obligation of retirement savings in the plea published in June 2019, in addition to the basic and complementary schemes, so that the latter could manage more assets. At a time when successive French governments are obsessed with cutting public spending, this advice has been heard and is timely.
This is one of the reasons for this reform, if not the main reason. Of course, this belligerent reform is multifactorial.
Now you know everything, at least a little bit more.🇫🇷 La RetraiteOn va aujourd'hui parler de la dette en France. Cette dernière, bien que présente dans bon nombre de pays et pour certain détenu uniquement par ces habitants, n'est pas désuète en France bien qu'ayant un lien très étroit avec la réforme des retraites pensée il y a plus de 7 ans dans les coulisses politiques.
Mais pourquoi une réforme maintenant ?Vous allez comprendre, Il y a d'abord la masse monétaire, c'est-à-dire l'argent en circulation dont tout acteur a besoin et dont les entreprises se servent pour se développer, mais cette masse est classée en 3 cases.
La première est appelée M1 est sont les pièces, les billets et les dépôts.
La deuxième nommé M2 sont les dépôts à terme inférieur ou égal à 2 ans ainsi que les livrets et autres dépôts à préavis inférieur ou égal à 3 mois.
Et pour finir, il y a le M3 qui sont pensions, les titres d'OPCVM monétaires (détenue par des français sous forme de bonds)et les titres de créance à terme inférieur ou égal à 2 ans.
On sait aussi que depuis la guerre, les Français épargnent plus, notamment sur des livrets dérisoires quand on sait ce que l'on peut gagner en investissant intelligemment.
Maintenant, je vais vous donner une information en plus. La dette de l'état est détenu sous forme de bonds émis par l'état. Pour faire simple, c'est comme si vous achetiez une action d'entreprise, mais sur ce cas de figure, vous devenez actionnaire de "l'état". Mais le problème est que cette dette en France n'a fait que s'accroitre depuis quelques années. Il faut dont attirer de nouveaux "actionnaires".
Les bonds ont une valeur, ce n'est autre que du cash placé (valeur nominale). Rappelez-vous, la Silicon Valley Bank qui étant en croissance a acheté beaucoup trop de ces derniers sans faire de calcul de capital risque se retrouvant avec une valeur amoindrit (valeur nominale) de ces bonds dû à la hausse des taux d'intérêts aux USA. Mais certains de ces clients avaient besoin de cash ce que la SVB n'a pu assurer.
Aujourd'hui, ceux qui détiennent le plus de la dette française sont BlackRock, Vanguard, le Qatar et l'Arabie Saoudite.Mais pourquoi la réforme des retraites ?Maintenant, vous savez que BlackRock est un "actionnaire de la France" sans compter les banques et assurance française pour ne pas dire le principale, est aussi gestionnaire de fonds et impacte que l'on le veuille ou non les paysages politiques. Et comme à chaque fois entre deux acteurs, il existe un rapport de force via des contreparties, BR a su négocier la sienne. Ils se sont dits que si les Français avaient peur pour leur épargne et leurs retraites, ils voudraient investir dans des fonds de retraites (pensions). Et oui, BR gère plus de 28 milliards d'actifs en France et plus de 10 000 milliards dans le monde. (selon les derniers chiffres)
Pourquoi me direz-vous ? Tout simplement à des fins de capitalisation, c'est-à-dire confier à des sociétés financières privées (comme BlackRock) la gestion d’une partie de l’assurance-retraite.  BlackRock proposerait une quasi-obligation d’épargne retraite dans le plaidoyer publié en Juin 2019, en plus des régimes de base et des complémentaires, afin que ce dernier puisse gérer plus d'actifs. Alors que les gouvernements français successifs sont obsédés par la réduction des dépenses publiques, ces conseils ont été entendus et tombent à pique.
Voilà notamment une des raisons de cette réforme si ce n'est la raison principale . Bien sûr, cette réforme belliqueuse est multifactorielle.
Maintenant, vous savez tout, du moins un peu plus.

30/03/23 Write By Trader Yan

🇺🇸 Interdependence is over?:
Whether it's Kenya signing an agreement with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to buy oil in Kenyan shillings instead of dollars.
Or it could be the BRICS working on a new currency to challenge the US dollar.
Or that OPEC + reduce its barrel production knowing that the US strategic reserves are low due to the Biden administration having used them to mitigate the energy crisis.
Or that Russia and India abandon the European oil price reference in favor of the Dubai oil price focused on Asia. Not to mention Taiwan's place in the picture. We are witnessing a life-size chess game combining power relations and many counterparts that will lead to an exit from the interdependencies of the world in two parts. The diptych will be full of opportunities on both sides leading to a bipartite world and at TRYPOFX we will anticipate them.🇫🇷 **L’interdépendance révolue ?
**
Que ce soit le Kenya signant un accord avec l'Arabie Saoudite et les Émirats Arabes Unis pour acheter du pétrole en shillings Kényans au lieu du dollar.
Ou encore que cela soit le travail des BRICS travaillant sur une nouvelle devise pour défier le dollar américain.
Ou encore que l'OPEP + réduisent sa production de baril sachant que les réserves stratégiques des USA sont faibles dû à l'administration Biden s'en étant servi pour atténuer la crise énergétique.
Ou encore que la Russie et L'inde qui abandonnent la référence du prix du pétrole Européen en faveur du prix du pétrole de Dubaï axé sur l'Asie. Sans oublier la place de Taïwan dans le champ de ce tableau. L'on assiste à un jeu d'échec grandeur nature alliant des rapports de forces et de maintes contreparties qui vont conduire à une sortie des interdépendances du Monde en 2 parties. Le diptyque sera en somme fervent d'opportunités d'un côté comme de l'autre conduisant sûrement à un monde bipartite et chez TRYPOFX nous les anticiperons.

30/03/23 Write By Trader Yan

🇺🇸 Today's round-up:
We'll start with the States and their meetings that seemed to reassure investors about the banking crisis, even though on the other side of the Atlantic, we were treated to raids on Société Générale, BNP Paribas, Exane (a subsidiary of BNP), Natixis and HSBC. This led to an old case from 2018 named "CumCum", a tax scheme on dividends whose damage to the states would amount to more than a hundred billion euros. Just that, on the interest and treasury bond side we're flat. Not much movement except that at the time of writing the US GDP is down by 0.1%, not huge, but significant because no increase followed by 193,000 jobless claims. And yes, because the technology companies are not laying off 10K people at Microsoft, 9000 at Amazon, 7k at Centrale China Real Estate, 9k at Credit Suisse well before the scandal or even more than 21K at Meta. One wonders why. Goldman Sachs, one of the biggest American banks, released a report according to which 300 million jobs would disappear because of AI. Elon Musk signed a petition this morning to suspend the development of the AI CHAT GPT4 in order to ask himself the right questions for humanity. Elon has another idea, do not think backwards like everyone else, if he is a billionaire, he is the one who thinks backwards ;).
And this week, China has done very strong. Russia accepts to pay in YUAN for commercial transactions. And one of the largest Chinese real estate developers reveals its results since 2007, including 800 million euros of losses in 2022 alone.
That's the overview.🇫🇷 Aujourd'hui tour d'horizon :
On va commencer avec les States et leurs réunions qui ont eu l'air de rassurer les investisseurs quant à la crise bancaire, même si de l'autre côté de l'atlantique, on a eu le droit à des perquisitions chez Société générale, BNP Paribas, Exane (filiale de la BNP), Natixis et HSBC. Cela a conduit à une ancienne affaire de 2018 nommée "CumCum", une combine fiscale sur les dividendes dont le préjudice pour les États se chiffrerait à plus d'une centaine de milliards d'euros. Juste ça, côté intérêts et bonds du trésor on est en stagnation. Pas trop de mouvement à part qu'à l'écriture de ces lignes le PIB américain recule de 0,1% pas énorme, mais significatif car aucune hausse suivi de 193 000 demandes d'allocations chômages. Et oui car mine de rien les entreprises technologique et pas licencie en masse 10K chez Microsoft, 9000 chez Amazon, 7k chez Centrale China Real Estate, 9k chez Crédit Suisse bien avant scandale ou encore + de 21K chez Meta. On se demande pourquoi. Goldman Sachs une des plus grosses banques américaines a sorti un rapport selon lequel 300 millions d'emplois viendraient à disparaitre à cause de l'IA. Elon Musk quant à lui signé une pétition ce matin pour suspendre le développement de l'IA CHAT GPT4 notamment afin de se poser les bonnes questions pour l'humanité. Elon a une autre idée, ne réfléchissaient pas à l'envers comme tout le monde, s'il est milliardaire, c'est lui qui réfléchi à l'endroit ;).
Et cette semaine, la Chine a fait très fort. La Russie accepte de payer en YUAN pour les transactions commerciales. Et un des plus grands promoteurs immobilier chinois dévoile ces résultats depuis 2007 dont 800 millions d'euros de pertes rien qu'en 2022.
Voilà en somme le tour d'horizon.

21/03/23 Write By Trader Yan

🇺🇸 It calms down but not too much:
Banks + treasury bonds + interest rates + inflation rates, that's a lot, so let's put some order in it.
Some banks have gone bankrupt in the US due to large and more profitable positions in treasury bonds. Why, because if you buy a bond at $172 when you are going to sell it, the goal is for it to be over $172 to generate a profit. The goal is to have liquidity outside the bank. Except that because of high interest rates due to inflation, the yield on the bonds went up, but their nominal values went down and the banks holding these bonds were in trouble, because if they sold their unrealized losses, it was estimated to be over $610 billion in losses. So Mr. Powell at the head of the US Federal Reserve, the equivalent of our Central Bank (ECB) headed by Christine Lagarde, tried to juggle between an iron fist and a velvet glove to control inflation (6%) and help banks not to suffer more from their bond purchases.
We have just seen that the Deutshe Bank (systemic bank), the first German bank, has suffered from these setbacks losing more than 15% at the opening this morning. I don't know when this will end but we are more on a macabre dance than a makeba dance.
I hope this little overview has helped you, I'm going back to trade and short the market.🇫🇷 Ça se calme mais pas trop:
Les banques + les bonds du trésor + les taux d'intérêts + le taux d'inflations cela en fait beaucoup  donc on va remettre un peu d'ordre.
Certaines banques ont fait faillite aux USA du en gros à de grosses positions plus rentables sur les bonds du trésor. Pourquoi, car si vous achetez un bon à 172$ quand vous allez le vendre, le but est qu'il soit à + de 172$ pour générer un profit. Le but étant d'avoir des liquidités en dehors de la banque. Sauf qu'à cause des taux d'intérêts élevés dû à l'inflation, le rendement des obligations a augmenté, mais leurs valeurs nominales a baissé et les banques détenant ces bonds ont été dans la panade, car si elles vendaient leurs pertes latentes, cela était évalué à plus de 610 milliards de pertes. Alors Mr Powell à la tête de la Federal Reserve Américaine l'équivalent de notre Banque Centrale (BCE) dirigé par Christine Lagarde  a tenté de jongler entre une main de fer et un gant de velours pour maitriser l'inflation (6%) et aider les banques à ne pas plus souffrir de leurs achats de Bonds.
On vient quand même de voir que la Deutshe Banque (banque systémique) première banque allemande, a souffert de ces revers perdant ce matin plus de 15% à l'ouverture. Je ne sais pas quand cela prendra fin mais l'on est quand même plus sur une danse macabre qu'une danse makeba.
J'espère que ce petit tout d'horizon a pu vous aider, je repars trader et shorter le marché.

21/03/23 Write By Trader Yan

🇺🇸 Where we are?
Can a recession happen? Whether it's Lebanon, Nigeria or Chinese loans to Americans, it's a good cocktail.
Let's come to Silicon Valley Bank. The latter, to give you a bigger picture, bought Treasury bonds at $172 after the pandemic, because it had more than $250 billion in cash from its clients, mainly start-ups. Only then did Powell raise interest rates, causing the face value of the bonds to drop to $92. But on its balance sheet, SVB wrote off its latent losses as "bonds to maturity" so that shareholders would have confidence in the bank and not withdraw anything.
But the SVB decided to hold a meeting with its investors to talk about strategies and issue new shares to raise funds, but this created a panic and many requests for withdrawals. (Bank Run)
Last Thursday, SVB customers were withdrawing their money at a record rate of $1.2 million per second ($42 billion on the day). Some hedge fund traders were pocketing huge gains ($500 million) by shorting SVB shares.
Understanding the beginning of the recession:
Lack of confidence (state of solvency) = many more withdrawals so need more cash ---> so less lending or else at high rates = Economy less stimulated.Small point Inflation: this must be maintained between 2 and 3% in order to stimulate the economy. But in the US and Europe currently, it is between 6 and 9%.🇫🇷 On en est où ?:
Une récession peut-elle arriver ? Que ce soit le Liban, le Nigeria ou encore les emprunts chinois à destination des Américains, on récolte un bon cocktail.
Venons-en à la Silicon Valley Bank. Cette dernière, pour vous grossir le tableau, a acheté à 172$ des bonds du trésor après pandémie, car elle détenait plus de 250 milliards de liquidités venant de ses clients, principalement des start-ups. Seulement à ce moment-là, Powell a remonté les taux d'intérêts, faisant chuter la valeur nominale des bonds ne valant maintenant que 92$. Mais sur son bilan comptable, la SVB a fait passer ses pertes latente sous forme de "bonds jusqu'à échéance" pour que les actionnaires puissent garder confiance en la banque et ne retire rien.
Mais la SVB a décidé de faire une réunion avec ses investisseurs pour leur parler des stratégies et émettre de nouvelles actions pour permettre une levée de fonds, mais cela a créé une panique et de nombreuses demandes de retraits. (Bank Run)
Jeudi dernier, les clients de la SVB retiraient leur argent à un rythme record de 1,2 million de dollars par seconde (42 milliards sur la journée). Quelques traders de hedge fund empochaient des gains faramineux (500 millions $) en vendant à découvert les actions de SVB.
Comprendre le début de la récession :
Manque de confiance (état de la solvabilité) = beaucoup plus de retraits donc besoin de plus de liquidités ---> donc moins de prêts ou alors à taux élevés = Économie moins stimulés.Petit point Inflation : cette dernière doit être maintenue entre 2 et 3% afin de stimuler l'économie. Mais aux États-Unis et en Europe actuellement, elle est entre 6 et 9%.

16/03/23 Write By the Trader Yan

🇺🇸The panic has subsided for now...:
After Credit Suisse lost more than 18% on its stock, it decided to borrow 50 billion euros from the Swiss National Bank to bail out its coffers. In the wake of this, the European Central Bank decided to remain Hawkish on its interest rate policy, judging inflation to be far too high, as a prosperous inflation for the economy is between 2 and 3% compared to 8.5% currently. This will not help the poorest households.
On the US side:
🇺🇸 US banks borrowed $164.8 billion from the FED to secure liquidity in one week. This is a new record
The previous historical record was $111 billion during the 2008 financial crisis; what does this portend?
We will find out in the coming weeks, we are in a rather tense context, a recession is looming and investors don't know what to do, if it continues like this they will dance on their hands. I'm not worried, because the Banks and the FED know very well what they are doing, you just have to watch and observe their movements to surf on their flows. In the context of shorts, TikTok has just been banned on UK government devices so we're left with a snapchat share price racket.🇫🇷 La panique s'est calmé pour l'instant...:
Après que le Crédit Suisse ait perdu plus de 18% sur son action, elle a décidé d'emprunter 50 milliards d'euros à la Banque Nationale Suisse pour renflouer ses caisses. Dans la suite de ce contexte, la Banque Centrale Européenne a décidé de rester Hawkish quant à sa politique de taux directeurs, jugeant l'inflation bien trop élevé, car une inflation prospère pour l'économie se situe entre 2 et 3% contre 8,5% actuellement. Cela ne va donc par arranger les affaires des ménages les plus modestes.Côté USA:
🇺🇸 Les banques américaines ont emprunté plus de 164,8 milliards de dollars à la FED pour garantir la liquidité. C'est un nouveau record.
Le record historique précédent était de 111 milliards lors de la crise financière de 2008; que cela présage t'il ?
Nous le découvrirons dans les semaines à venir et nous sommes donc dans un contexte plutôt tendu, une récession pend au nez et les Investisseurs ne savent plus sur quel pied danser, si cela continue ils danseront sur les mains. Je ne m'inquiète pas, car les Banques et la FED savent très bien ce qu'elles font, il y a juste à voir et observer leurs mouvements pour surfer sur leurs flux. Dans le contexte de short, TikTok vient d'être banni sur les appareils gouvernementaux anglais donc on reste à l’affût du prix de l'action snapchat.s

14/03/23 Write By the Trader Yan

🇬🇧 Big panic on the markets:
3 banks went bankrupt during these 4 days. The reason is mainly excessive cash withdrawals by startups and other customers to compensate for high interest rates. (Silicon Valey Bank, Signature Bank, Silvergate Bank) And as you know now, finance is wind. So when you take out too much wind you get a storm. The FED is thinking about easing interest rates after Treasury bills have increased.
Let's remember that we are in inflation and that by definition there is a lot of cash in circulation but this cash is not following the development of the post-covid and post-war economy which leads to big inflationary spikes. We remain on our guard while following the plan.🇫🇷 Grosse panique sur les marchés:
3 banques ont donc fait faillite durant ces 4 jours. La raison est surtout des retraits excessifs de cash par les start up et autres clients pour pallier aux taux d’intérêts élevés. (Silicon Valey Bank, Signature Bank, Silvergate Bank) Et comme vous le savez maintenant la finance c’est du vent. Donc quand on retire trop de vent on récolte une tempête. La FED réfléchit donc à un assouplissement des taux d’intérêts après que les bons du trésors aient quant à eux bien augmenté.
Rappelons que nous sommes en inflation et que par définition il y a beaucoup de liquidités en circulation mais cette dernière ne suit absolument pas le développement de l’économie post covid et guerre ce qui conduit à de gros piques d’inflation. On reste sur nos gardes tout en suivant le plan.